Well, last week was rough. I ended up going just 3-7. Hopefully, I can at least have a winning record this week. These SEC teams vs. below average teams are killing me with their huge spreads.
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt by 9
I am taking Vandy. I think Vandy barely covers the spread and wins by 10. State embarassed the Commodores last season and issued Vandy their first loss after a 5-0 start. Vandy is out for revenge. While State should keep the game close in the first half, I see Zac Stacy wearing their defense down in the second half and going over 100 yards rushing.
Tennessee @ Florida
Florida by 29.5
Jon Crompton is pitiful and is going against one of the top 3 defenses in the nation. Montario Hardesty is the real deal, but unfortunately for Tennessee, he will be their only offensive threat, and I think Brandon Spikes will be all over him. UT could barely move the ball against UCLA. I don't see them having more success against an angry Florida team. Urban Meyer can be none too pleased with Kiffin's comments this summer nor UT's billboard in his backyard. He will be looking to leave no doubt which program is better. Look for Florida to go over 40 points and UT to score at most 10 points.
Georgia @ Arkansas
Arkansas by 2
Joe Cox has not impressed me so far. AJ Green has not been the factor he is capable of being. Georgia's defense has had some key injuries and allowed an average South Carolina offense to score 37 on them. Arkansas's defense is nothing great either, but Ryan Mallet is the real deal. USC transfer Broderick Green along with Michael Smith should run wild against Georgia.
Louisville @ Kentucky
Kentucky by 14
This game usually seems to be close. Kentucky may win, but I am not buying their 42-0 rout of Miami of Ohio. That game was 0-0 after the first quarter. Kentucky did win 27-2 last year, but that was due in large part to bad offensive plays by Louisville more than UK moving the ball. Louisville has certainly fallen from grace since Bobby Patrino left, but I am hoping they at least keep it close. Maybe a 10 point loss...
North Texas @ Alabama
Alabama by 39.5
I hate huge spreads like this. You never know whether the underdog will roll over in the second half or put up a fight against the favorite's second unit. Alabama only put up 40 last week against Florida Interntional. I am hoping that they don't go over that this weekend, and North Texas can at least score an field goal. Julio Jones may not play as well.
Florida Atlantic @ South Carolina
South Carolina by 20.5
South Carolina showed they could score last weekend at Georgia. Florida Atlantic lost to Nebraska 49-3. I will take South Carolina at home to win by at least 21.
Louisiana Lafayette @ LSU
LSU by 26.5
The Ragin Cajuns beat Kansas State last weekend 17-15, so we know they can play with BCS schools. For having such a explosive offense, LSU has yet to score more than 31 points this year. However, with their defense, they may not need to score more than 28 to cover this spread. I think LSU will break out in this game. I will go with LSU, but I won't be shocked if the Cajuns cover.
West Virginia @ Auburn
Auburn by 7.5
Has there been a bigger surprise this season that Auburn. They are scoring and running on teams at will. However, now they will have to play a solid West Virginia team. I am still not sold on Auburn's QB situation, and West Virginia's Jarrett Brown threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs against a solid East Carolina team last week. Noel Devine is a speedster. I see this game being really close yet high scoring. Maybe like Georgia vs. South Carlolina last week. I will take West Virginia to cover.
USC @ Washington
USC by 20
Barkley is hurt. Taylor Mays may not play. Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt know this SC team inside and out. Jake Locker is a very solid QB. Chris Polk should be able to put up decent numbers after rushing for 90 yards against LSU. I would be shocked if SC lost, but I see this being a close game. Maybe SC by 10.
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech by 5
Virginia Tech put up a solid fight against Alabama. Tyrod Taylor is a very talented QB. Virginia Tech always has a good defense and special teams. I know Tech is playing at home. I know that Bo Pelini is a great defense coach, but Nebraska has yet to be tested. I like Tech by at least a TD.
