Good teams convert on third down. This is not a miracle of an observation, but if Saturday is any indication, Vanderbilt is not a good team.
The Commodore offense converted a miserable three of 17 third down attempts against Georgia. Two of the three, unshockingly, came on the 80-yard touchdown drive that opened the second half — the first offensive touchdown for the Commodores since the Ole Miss game.
The conversion problem isn't isolated to Georgia home games in Nashville, though. For the 2008 season, the offense ranked 111th nationally in conversions; this year, 101st. Since the Auburn game last year, Vanderbilt's converted an abysmal 26 percent (66-251) of third downs. It's not always like this, however.
Over the past two seasons, when Vanderbilt wins, the offense converts 39 percent of the time; when they lose, they convert only 27 percent of third downs. Basically, that's two extra series a game that continue on instead of ending with senior Brett Upson — not necessarily life changing for a team, but it doesn't hurt to keep the defense off the field.
Vanderbilt head coach Bobby Johnson says the problem is pass protection.
“We couldn’t give Larry (Smith) time to pass the ball. They were getting him out of the pocket," Johnson said after the game. "He was running for his life out there a couple times, even when we didn't get sacked."
Smith was hurried and sacked on third down against the Dawgs and only completed three passes in third down situations. With injuries to redshirt senior offensive tackle Thomas Welch and redshirt sophomore tight end Austin Monahan during the game, the protection problems make sense — for Saturday.
"We wanted to move Jamie (Graham) to get a big play threat at wide receiver," Johnson said. "I don’t think Georgia respected our big play threats and they played a lot of man. It was tough coverage."
It's hard to imagine how Vanderbilt's given anyone any reason to respect the big play this season. The Commodores struggle mightily to convert in the air. Saturday, one of those three conversions was a run play — and it's never clear whether that's intentional or just Smith running for his life. Take the Ole Miss game. The offense converted five of 17 third downs and four of them were Larry Smith rushes.
Vanderbilt's problem with third downs isn't even simple conversion, though. Against Georgia, third down brought on a sack, a fumble (recovered) and a red zone interception. Against Ole Miss, third down brought on two sacks, a fumble (recovered) and a red zone interception. Against LSU, third down brought on a sack and a fourth quarter interception at the LSU 22 to kill a drive that could have tied the game at 17. The problem for the Commodores isn't just failing to convert; the problem is not blowing the drive.
Maybe it’s the protection, maybe it’s just being clutch. If we're looking for a real difference maker, though, one fact stands out: The last time Vanderbilt had a conversion rate above 40 percent, it was 2005 and Jay Cutler was quarterback.





