This Sunday, Abdullah Abdullah, the leading challenger in the upcoming run-off elections for the Afghani presidency, withdrew from the race. With this new development, an already tenuous prognosis for the future of the Afghani state worsens.
In his withdrawal announcement, Abdullah leveled a parting jab at the front-runner and sitting President Hamid Karzai, accusing him of rigging the first election. Should the United Nations election commission, currently investigating the allegations, find truth in Abdullah’s claims, the future of the Afghani state may be at risk. The implications of instability in Afghanistan, already considered by some to be one of the top-10 failed states, reach far beyond its boarders.
Failure to develop a legitimate Afghani authority will result in direct and indirect costs to the U.S. and many of its allies. This weekend, Obama visited Dover Air Force base where 18 fallen heroes returned in flag draped caskets from Afghanistan. Among the bodies were three Drug Enforcement Administration agents, slain while working to stem the flow of heroin from the war-torn nation. Despite coordinated efforts between the DEA, CIA and Department of Department, Afghanistan continues to produce roughly 90 percent of the world’s supply of heroin. This money accounts for nearly 50 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP. Much of this money is laundered through various warlords in rural Afghanistan who see no reason to submit to a governmental authority in disrepair. The U.S., the U.N. and the current regime in Afghanistan owe it not only to the Afghani people but also to the people of the world as well to enable a credible centralized government that can effectively corral the burgeoning drug trade.
Sensing the instability, given a face by the departure of Abdullah from the political process, militants in Afghanistan have ramped up violence and intimidation, even killing U.N. elections observers. Much of this violence has the potential to destabilize the entire region, especially when it spills over the border into Pakistan.
The Afghani people deserve a better shot. More than empty rhetoric is needed on the part of the Americans, who until this weekend were squarely in the “steady as she goes” camp, seemingly fine with their heir apparent, the fraud-riddled Karzai. Afghanistan and the world would be better served by reexamining the entire political system in Afghanistan. Perhaps the withdrawal of Abdullah from the political system should be a warning that the government in Afghanistan and the stability of the region is at a tipping point.
—Steve Braun is a senior in the College of Arts and Science. He can be reached at steven.a.braun@vanderbilt.edu.
