Best Picture
Predicted - "The Departed"
Preferred - "The Departed"

The Academy's boneheaded treatment of our greatest living filmmaker is well-documented - but so is their tradition of making up for these blunders with a late-career award. That "The Departed" was so phenomenal helps Marty's cause considerably. As for the major competition: those who were indignant over the upending victory of "Crash" last year will probably not pick the similarly fractured "Babel" nor the similarly tenacious "Little Miss Sunshine," a charming little film whose candidacy I still don't understand. But don't be surprised if "Letters from Iwo Jima" stages a last-minute surge - they love them some Clint Eastwood.

Best Director
Predicted - Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Preferred - Paul Greengrass, "United 93"

The same logic holds for the best director award: the Academy is going to decide it's about time for Scorsese to win. And the Marty-partisan (Martisan?) in me loves this. But "United 93" took hold of its tiny audience in a way few films ever attempt - the movie theater became an extension of that plane, and one was forced to wonder how they would react in such an awful situation. Of course, the subject matter is still too touchy to be fodder for awards season, but Greengrass deserves props for his eloquent, tasteful and truthful handling of Sept. 11.

Best Actor
Predicted - Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Preferred - Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"

Best Actress
Predicted - Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Preferred - Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"

These are my protest votes. I haven't been able to see "The Last King of Scotland" or "The Queen" yet, and by all accounts Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are astoundingly good as former dictator Idi Amin and Queen Elizabeth II, respectively. My protest has to do with a scurrilous new thespian trend - play a famous person with imitative detail and perceptive emotional depth. Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jamie Foxx both won by such performances; Joaquin Phoenix, Will Smith and David Straithairn have all been nominated. Creating a similarly rich character from scratch is arguably even more difficult.

Best Supporting Actor
Predicted - Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Preferred - Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"

Eddie Murphy has fallen a long way since the supernova of his 1980s stand-up - fat suits and donkey voice-overs are his thing now. He slips comfortably into his James Brown-lite role in "Dreamgirls," and he keeps the motor chugging for the first third of the film. His fiery singing and dancing and the recent death of James Brown assure him the award. But Jackie Earle Haley's turn as a just-released sex offender cuts way deeper - he ends up more sympathetic than either of the main characters. The Academy won't recognize this indelible performance, but they should.

Best Supporting Actress
Predicted - Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Preferred - Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

The most obvious pick of the whole lot. Former "American Idol" contestant Hudson simply blows everyone off the stage in "Dreamgirls" and will likely do so again come Oscar night. This should really be a lead nomination, but the producers must have lobbied for the more winnable nomination. Her rendition of the showstopper "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" is simply mind-blowing: when you can upstage Beyonce, you know you've arrived.