Last week, we dealt with the post-speech surge for Obama that was effectively killed by the shocker of the conservative folk hero arriving. Post-Palin speech, however, McCain has pulled even:

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking: McCain 46% Obama 46%

AllahPundit's pessimism meter is set to nine. So sayeth Allah: "expecting a heart-stopping finish in which we lose narrowly but congratulate ourselves on making a race out of a campaign we should have lost by 15 points." Participation trophies for everybody! That's my pessimism at all times, as well of course, though Palin gets to be our Miss Congeniality in this one no matter what.

In terms of the polling, I'd say this means we have two to four more cycles of opinion poll swings, allowing for at least two of the debates potentially; Iran starts launching Halloween warheads, Pakistan plays Red Rover with guns, et al; or Biden/Palin says anything really terrible. The worst place to be is up more than a few points in the last week / fourth quarter, because you can make your last minute Rudy surge. I'm not too concerned just yet, Obama will make a big end of September push.

Katherine Miller blogs daily at Right-Wing Vitriol.