He wasn't in Vegas, but Dean of Admissions Douglas Christiansen knows a thing or two about gambling in a recession.
"Welcome to my daily worry," said Christiansen, referring to his need to predict the yearly "yield" or exactly how many members of an admitted freshman class will actually choose to attend Vanderbilt. The prediction of the yield may affect the number of students the office ultimately chooses to admit.
Christiansen, who is also the associate provost for enrollment management, said the recession will ultimately affect that number. This has indirectly changed the school's early decision admit rates and the use of the wait list, as well as the way the school is marketing itself to prospective students.
"The yield will be a little more volatile this year, and as we have a finite number of beds, we can't go over, and we can't go under without having a financial situation," Christiansen said.
According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, admissions counselors in American universities speculate that this year's yield will prove at least as difficult to predict as last year's, described as "the most nerve-racking in memory." According to their research, this change in yield would be the result of students applying to more colleges than usual in order to more effectively compare financial aid packages, as well as increasing the popularity of state institutions.
Christiansen said last year his office "purposefully shot lower" in the amount of students they let in and they let more students in off their waitlists than usual, which directly affected last year's yield.
The Office of Admissions also admitted 100 more students during early decision this year, a form of admissions that is binding to admitted students and, unlike general decision, does not allow them to shop around for aid packages.
While Christiansen said letting in more students during early decision allows the school to more accurately predict how much aid they will be giving, he said the recession was not the dominant factor.
According to the Office of Admissions, the average SAT median range of the early decision class has gone up from 1365 last year to 1400 this year. Additionally, while 78 percent of last year's class was in the top 10 percent of their high school, this year that number has risen to 85.6 percent.
Early decision rounds, which impact a school's overall yield, will select around 40 percent of next year's class, a slightly higher than average rate.
Perhaps the biggest change in this year's admissions process at Vanderbilt has been the launch of an enhanced financial aid program, which promises debt-free need-based aid for students throughout their four years. Christiansen said although the yield is unknown to his office until the end of the admissions process, the school was prepared to meet its pledge for debt-free aid.
"We are talking with economists, looking at profiles of our students so if students require more aid, we're looking at our how our budgets will support it," he said.
