Over at the Next Right, Sean Oxendine has McCain down to Sister Christian by 5.3 in Virginia; Real Clear has him down by 6.3 (with the comparison of Bush winning by 8.1 and 8.2 in 2000 and 2004, respectively), to which Kleinheider had this to say:

“I realize that northern Virginia is growing and different but I am just not convinced that McCain with his military background and Palin with her evangelicalism are gonna lose Virginia which RCP is giving Obama as a leaner, not a tossup.

“Call it a hunch. Call it whatever you like. But I just don’t think Obama wins Virginia or North Carolina in November. Things are bad in the economy but I don’t think they are that bad, not yet. I smell some Bradley Effect in that polling.”

The consensus in the comments on that post was that he’s mistaken; I’m divided. On the one hand, I’ve written before in this space that Virginia will go to McCain; on the other, the economy’s terrible. Northern Virginia is big, yes, and voter registration has risen big time in the area, but where? Loudoun County was the fastest growing county in the country for at least a year since the 2004 election, while growth rates stalled in Fairfax and Arlington. Bush carried 56% in Loudoun in 2004 — relative to the rest of the region, it’s a conservative stronghold. The military vote cannot be underestimated, either. Putting Palin on a Guns’n'God Goodwill Tour through Hampton Roads, Roanoke, and Lynchburg might be worthwhile, however.

Katherine Miller is a junior at Vanderbilt University. She blogs daily at Right-Wing Vitriol.